Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Working paper 895, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu FabraSeveral studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics in multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderate even when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values of the weights.Postprint (author’s final draft

In-work poverty in the East Midlands

Research that explores the nature and scale of in-work poverty in the East Midlands, using several established measures

Plain cigarette packs do not exert Pavlovian to instrumental transfer of control over tobacco-seeking

Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tCopyright © 2014 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of AddictionAIMS: To gain insight into the potential impact of plain tobacco packaging policy, two experiments were undertaken to test whether 'prototype' plain compared with branded UK cigarette pack stimuli would differentially elicit instrumental tobacco-seeking in a nominal Pavlovian to instrumental transfer (PIT) procedure. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Two experiments were undertaken at the University of Bristol UK, with a convenience sample of adult smokers (experiment 1, n = 23, experiment 2, n = 121). MEASUREMENT: In both experiments, smokers were trained on a concurrent choice procedure in which two responses earned points for cigarettes and chocolate, respectively, before images of branded and plain packs were tested for capacity to elicit the tobacco-seeking response in extinction. The primary outcome was percentage choice of the tobacco- over the chocolate-seeking response in plain pack, branded pack and no-stimulus conditions. FINDINGS: Both experiments found that branded packs primed a greater percentage of tobacco-seeking (overall mean = 62%) than plain packs (overall mean = 53%) and the no-stimulus condition (overall mean = 52%; Ps ≤ 0.01, ŋp (2) s ≥ 0.16), and that there was no difference in percentage tobacco-seeking between plain packs and the no-stimulus condition (Ps ≥ 0.17, ŋp (2) s ≤ 0.04). Plain tobacco packs showed an overall 9% reduction in the priming of a tobacco choice response compared to branded tobacco packs. CONCLUSIONS: Plain packaging may reduce smoking in current smokers by degrading cue-elicited tobacco-seeking.British Heart FoundationCancer Research UKNIHRMRCESR

Using Adobe Flash Lite on mobile phones for psychological research: reaction time measurement reliability and inter-device variability

Mobile telephones have significant potential for use in psychological research, possessing unique characteristics—not least their ubiquity—that may make them useful tools for psychologists. We examined whether it is possible to measure reaction times (RTs) accurately using Adobe Flash Lite on mobile phones. We ran simple and choice RT experiments on two widely available mobile phones, a Nokia 6110 Navigator and a Sony Ericsson W810i, using a wireless application protocol (WAP) connection to access the Internet from the devices. RTs were compared within subjects with those obtained using a Linux-based millisecond-accurate measurement system. Results show that measured RTs were significantly longer on mobile devices, and that overall RTs and distribution of RTs varied across device

Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

Do You Know What You Owe? Students\u27 Understanding of Their Student Loans

Using a data set that augments a student survey with administrative data from the Iowa State University Office of Financial Aid, the authors posed two questions: Do students know whether they have student loans? Do students know how much they owe on outstanding student loans? We used logistic and ordered logit regressions to answer these questions. Results suggest that although the majority of students are aware that they owe on student loans, many underestimate the amount they owe. One eighth of students in the current study reported no student debt when, in fact, they had a loan. Over a quarter of the students underestimated the amount they owed by less than $10,000, and nearly one tenth of students underestimated the amount that they owed by more than$10,000. This article discusses the roles that counselors, educators, and policy makers can play in improving students’ understanding of their student loan debt

On the perceptual aesthetics of interactive objects

In this paper we measured the aesthetics of interactive objects (IOs), which are three-dimensional physical artefacts that exhibit autonomous behaviour when ‎handled. The aim of the research was threefold: firstly, to investigate whether aesthetic preference for distinctive objects' structures emerges in compound stimulation; secondly, to explore whether there exists aesthetic preference for distinctive objects’ behaviours; and lastly, to test whether there exists aesthetic preference for specific combinations of objects' structures and behaviours. The following variables were systematically manipulated: 1) IOs’ contour (rounded vs. angular); 2) IOs’ size (small vs. large); 3) IOs’ surface texture (rough vs. smooth); and 4) IOs’ behaviour (Lighting, Sounding, Vibrating, and Quiescent). Results show that behaviour was the dominant factor: it influenced aesthetics more than any other characteristic; Vibrating IOs were preferred over Lighting and Sounding IOs, supporting the importance of haptic processing in aesthetics. Results did not confirm the size and smoothness effects previously reported in vision and touch respectively, which suggests that for the aesthetics preference that emerges in isolated conditions may be different in compound stimulation. Finally, results corroborate the smooth curvature effect

Cancer patients enrolled in a smoking cessation clinical trial: characteristics and correlates of smoking rate and nicotine dependence

This is the final version. Available on open access from Hindawi Publishing Corporation via the DOI in this recordIntroduction: A substantial proportion of cancer patients continue to smoke after their diagnosis but relatively few studies have evaluated correlates of nicotine dependence and smoking rate in this population, which could help guide smoking cessation interventions. Aim: This study evaluated correlates of smoking rate and nicotine dependence in a sample of 207 cancer patients. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis using multiple linear regression evaluated disease, demographic, affective, and tobacco-seeking correlates of smoking rate and nicotine dependence. Smoking rate was assessed using a timeline follow-back assessment of cigarettes smoked per day. The Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence measured levels of nicotine dependence. Results: The primary analysis, using multiple linear regression predicting nicotine dependence, showed an association with smoking to alleviate a sense of addiction from the Reasons for Smoking Scale and tobacco-seeking behavior from the Concurrent Choice Task (p < .05), but not with affect measured by the HADS and PANAS (p > .05). Multiple linear regression predicting smoking rates prior to pre-quit visit also showed an association with smoking to alleviate addiction (p < .05). ANOVA showed that Caucasian participants reported greater rates of smoking compared to other reported races. Conclusions: The results suggest that behavioral smoking cessation interventions that focus on helping patients to manage tobacco-seeking behavior, rather than mood management interventions, could help cancer patients to quit smoking, as this data could be used to help tailor treatments for this population

Alternative job search strategies in remote rural and peri-urban labour markets: the role of social networks

This paper examines the importance of informal methods (especially social networking) to the job search strategies used by unemployed people. It compares three areas: a small rural town; a larger, more sparsely populated, remote rural area; and a centrally-located, peri-urban labour market. The analysis is based first on survey research undertaken with 490 job seekers across the study areas. Emerging issues were then followed up during a series of twelve focus groups. The survey research showed that job seekers in the rural study areas were significantly more likely to use social networks to look for work. However, those who had experienced repeated or long-term periods out of work, the unskilled and young people were significantly less likely to use such networks. Focus groups confirmed the perceived importance of social networking to the job search process in rural areas, in contrast to the more marginal role such methods appear to play in peri-urban settings. For many rural job seekers, formal job search activities conducted through Jobcentres were seen as largely symbolic, lacking the practical value of social networking. These results suggest that service providers seeking to assist unemployed people in rural areas need to address the problems faced by many disadvantaged job seekers who are currently caught between their lack of social network relations and the absence of local public employment service facilities in more remote communities